Estrada under pressure as Moro Muslims refuse to be defeated

By a correspondent in Manila

Not content with the relentless bombing of Muslim villages in Mindanao since early this year, Philippine president Joseph Estrada has stepped up his vicious campaign by a systematic aerial bombardment of Jolo islands, south of the republic. But even with American military and financial support, it is doubtful whether Estrada can achieve his declared intention, a "lasting solution" in the south. Domestic pressures for Estrada’s removal are increasing steadily, while on the military front Manila has been unable to convince the world that its military offensive is hitting the target it claims it is trying to reach: the Abu Sayyaf group.

In the latest assault, on October 6, thousands of soldiers despatched by Manila searched the towns of Panamao, Luuk, Maimbung and Talipao for the Abu Sayyaf group (a breakaway faction of the now-defunct Moro National Liberation Front), who have been involved in a series of kidnappings and hostage-takings. At the moment, three Malaysians, a Filipino and an American are held captive. Manila, encouraged by the silent approval of neighbouring countries, who were led to believe that the offensive was to counter terrorism and kidnapping of their citizens, has further increased its military strength in the region, with financial backing from Washington to support its former colony’s now tattered economy.

Despite the frenzy over Abu Sayyaf, domestic problems are too serious to take a back seat in the Philippine media, much to Estrada’s disappointment. The Philippine currency, the peso, hit a record low against the US dollar on October 4. In addition, Estrada, who has been at odds with the country’s Roman Catholic Church and politicians over scandals plaguing his presidency, has been hit by another scandal: that he and his relatives have been receiving bribes from the gambling mafia. The Senate has ordered an investigation of Estrada, after his own ally, provincial governor Luis Singson, said that he would testify against relatives and friends of the president who received gambling money.

Estrada had hoped to take advantage of the Abu Sayyaf menace to win international support for an all-out war against the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). MILF is fighting for self-determination in Muslim-majority Mindanao, annexed to the Philippines by Spanish invaders. However, Estrada miscalculated his military campaign, which included a witchhunt of Muslims and raiding of mosques. Instead of gaining praise for his efforts to release the hostages, leading human rights and Islamic organisations, especially in neighbouring Malaysia, whose tourist industry has been worst hit by the kidnappings, have begun to see through Manila’s ploy.

The influential Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS) has condemned Manila’s massacre of Muslim civilians, while the Islamic Youth Movement of Malaysia (ABIM), the largest youth group in the country, has accused Estrada of using Abu Sayyaf as an excuse for a more "diabolical agenda". Even the Malaysian government and its tightly controlled media have become cautious about Manila’s campaign.

Initially, Manila managed to dupe the international media into accepting that the bombings are necessary to weed out Abu Sayyaf. However, after four weeks and hundreds of deaths (and thousands more refugees), the Philippine regime has failed to convince anyone that it is targetting the Abu Sayyaf group. Even the French government, whose citizens were also kidnapped, has criticised the indiscriminate bombing of villages.

On October 5, Amnesty International condemned a military swoop on a mosque in Jolo, in which ten Muslims, including the mosque’s caretakers and some homeless people seeking shelter, were arrested. Weapons and a grenade were allegedly found in a cabinet there. The Philippine Commission on Human Rights (CHR) were denied permission to visit the Muslims in jail, fuelling suspicions that the ten might have been tortured by the army interrogators.

A month into the massive military campaign, Manila claimed that only 29 "rebels" had been killed and "53 captured". What it did not mention was that close to a million refugees have overcrowded cities such as Marawi and Zamboanga, and hundreds of civilians have been killed.

Estrada has continuously tried to link the Abu Sayyaf group with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, which is now in retreat after the capture of several camps by Manila’s forces in June. But even the international media have seen through this propaganda, as MILF has never taken hostages.

Philippine historian Professor Thomas McKenna, who has written a book on Muslims in the south, confirmed the suspicion about Abu Sayyaf in a recent interview: "Abu Sayyaf is a very mysterious and perplexing group and some of the activities credited to or claimed by them seem highly irrational and counterproductive," he said, adding that MILF and MNLF, who signed a peace-treaty to make way for autonomy in Mindanao in 1996, have condemned the group’s actions strongly.

In an attempt to salvage some credibility, on September 29 Estrada announced a "general amnesty" to MILF mujahideen, which was flatly dismissed by the latter. "Amnesty is hereby granted to members and supporters of the MILF who have committed crimes on or before issuance of this proclamation in pursuit of their political beliefs," he said. MILF leaders responded by threatening to come out from their present hide-outs and relaunch the daring attacks that once terrified Manila’s army, if Manila does not stop killing civilians.

However, seeing the lengths to which Manila could go (namely the destruction of Muslim lives and property), MILF’s immediate concern was to avert yet another all-out war with the Philippine regime. On October 7, MILF’s military chief Mohammad Murad was reported to have said that the mujahideen group might consider autonomy, and will be willing to engage in talks with Manila, but not in the Philippines. "We are open for everything. We did not say that we did not want autonomy. If it is the solution, we will go for it," he said. But Murad also added: "we did not say we do not want independence. If it is the solution, we will work for it."

But Estrada is expected to reject the MILF’s latest offer. After all, his immediate concern is his political survival, not peace. Analysts say that the ball is now in Manila’s court. Before ending his presidency, Estrada may choose either to salvage what little support he still enjoys among Filipinos, as former president Fidel Ramos did by signing a peace-treaty, or to earn the distinction of becoming known as the "butcher of the Philippines".

Judging by Estrada’s rejection of previous offers to hold peace-talks, and the continued American encouragement to crush the Muslims’ demand for self-determination, Estrada may well choose the latter.